🏛️ Will the real Slim Warsh please stand up, please stand up, please stand up

Labor Day marks one of the America's favorite weekends. Nice 3-day vacations 🏖️, kids having to go back to school 🏫 (shout out to happy parents), last great bbq cookout of the summer.

However, there was not much celebrating for Kev, Kev.

That's because this Labor Day, America gave Mr. Warsh the jobs report he wasn't expecting 💥.

August jobs report came in at 162,000 jobs, where Wall Street had penciled in only about 55,000 jobs.

🙈 Why is that not good news?

Normally, that would be great news (more jobs = more GDP = bigger economy, no?)

But not for Mr. Market (it sold off 📉 on the news)

That's because Mr. Market want's lower interest rates. And if jobs are good, that means the economy is good (for everyone but Gen Z - let's not fool ourselves).

And that means: no-cut-for-you!

Which translates into a more expensive dollar. Which means the thing everyone's been waiting two years for, an interest-rate cut, is now blowing in the wind.

😭 The Damage, by the numbers

📊 The Numbers:​
↳ 💼 The beat: 162,000 jobs in August against a 45–55K consensus, unemployment holding at 4.1%, and July's negative print revised back into the black.
↳ 🎲 The odds: Futures moved the probability of a September hike to roughly 58%, up from a coin flip (50%) the day before (who's feeling the chill?🧊)
↳ 📈 The bond market noticed: the 2-year Treasury climbed to about 4.37%, and the 10-year touched 4.8%. Its highest in almost 3 years.
↳ 🗓️ The tell to watch: August CPI drops later this week (Sept 11th.) The FOMC meets the 16th and 17th. Fed Governor Waller has said he'd rather sit still unless the inflation data surprises him. That's the signal of a man leaving himself a way out.

Back in May I welcomed Kevin Warsh to the Fed with, "hope you enjoy the water, J Pow left it warm for you."

I'd like to revise my previous statement to, I hope you enjoy the "jacuzzi."

The Fed doesn't raise rates because the economy is sick. It raises them because the economy is healthy and refuses to apologize for it.

Which leaves Kev Kev the least enviable job in Washington. Explaining to 340 million people that the prize for a strong labor market is a more expensive mortgage. 🏠

By the way, interest rates hit 7.01% yesterday.

💐 I buried Bitcoin last June. Well, it decided to send me flowers.

Three months ago I wrote BTC's obit. Down 28% on the year, Saylor blinking, ETH getting outranked by a stablecoin.

I presented the whole 🪦 funeral. I even quoted Munger on ladies, liquor, and leverage (to be fair, he had a point.)

Then Bitcoin did what Bitcoin does best, which is wake up from it's slumber and start asking, "who spiked the punch bowl?" and went back to drinking 🍺.

Now it's trading near $80,000, from roughly $62,000.

Which honestly makes sense, because Bitcoin doesn't. Ever. Make. Sense.

But before anyone forwards this to their Gen Z cousin with the laser eyes, YOLO-ing me with a Bored Ape, and saying Romeo's NGMI. We need the deets on where this is coming from:

🔍What's actually happening

₿ Crypto making moves​
↳ 📈 The move: roughly a 26% run in price, with open interest up around 16% with it.
↳ ⚠️ Why that matters: if this were shorts getting squeezed out, open interest would fall. It went up. Nobody got liquidated into this rally. People borrowed into it (hello Leverage, my old friend).
↳ 🎯 The line in the sand: average cost basis still sits around $80k-$83k for the ETP (exchange traded product) crowd, $76,000 for active holders. Hold above it and the average investor is finally back in the green. Lose it and everybody's underwater again, which tends to be self-fulfilling.

Now, where have we heard this before? 🤔

Two weeks ago I wrote about 16 leveraged ETFs erasing an entire Korean generation's down payment in 60 days.

Leverage is not a direction. It's an amplifier. You never know whether it's helping you or killing you, (and some times you find out, before it's too late).

Bitcoin didn't die in June, and with all the talk of AI and Financial Instiutional Stablecoins, it may never die (fully).

It's just changing which side of the leverage ledger it's standing on. 🎢

Market Highlights within the last 30 days

BTC 🚀🚀🚀 the last 30 days ~ BTC $79,933 (+22.99%) Gold and Silver had a little bump ~ Gold $4,470 (+1.18%) ~ Silver $67.33 (+3.19%) S&P and Nasdaq stayed neutral last month ~ S&P 500 $7,718 (-0.45%) ~ Nasdaq $26,507 (-0.37%)

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What's been going on with your Favorite CPA

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This is what happens when a Wasp 🐝 stings you on your eyelid.

On the brighterside, a few people asked me how sparing 🥊 practice has been going.

I'll take it.

Talk to you guys a in few weeks ❤️

Romeo Razi, CPA ​Taxedright.com​

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600 1st Ave, Ste 330 PMB 92768, Seattle, WA 98104-2246
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